Is Housing Really in Recovery?

Tue, 22 Mar 2011 22:17:57 +0000

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During one of my reports today on how gas prices could affect the housing recovery, one of the anchors asked me if I really believe there is a housing recovery right now.

That’s a very good question.

Yesterday, the Realtors chief economist questioned it himself.

Today a new report from Robert Shiller’s outfit, MacroMarkets, found that of 111 housing market experts and economists surveyed, nearly half foresee a double-dip in home prices happening this year, “and not a single panelist expects national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming 5 years.” In December, only 15 percent projected a new post-crash low would materialize for home prices. We are now less than 1 percent away from that mark, according to the survey.

“Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate,” writes Shiller. “Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013.”

This report comes on the same day that Fannie Mae’s chief economist put out a report claiming uncertainty in Japan and trouble in Libya will directly affect housing’s recovery, specifically citing rising gas prices.