(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

While inventories improved slightly in August on a national basis, up 0.4 percent month-to-month, they are still down 6.3 percent from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

While home sales were higher in August, the Realtors said it was, “the last hurrah,” as several indicators showed buyer traffic slowed dramatically at the end of the summer.

“The sharpest falloff in the HousingPulse Homebuyer Traffic Indexes was seen among current homeowners, the largest group of home purchasers in this year’s housing market. The first-time homebuyer group also saw a decline in its traffic index,” according to a new report from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance.

The fall and winter months are traditionally the slowest in the housing business, and weaker demand will affect prices. Sales of newly built homes have not exactly been gangbusters, and new orders at both Lennar and KB Home were weaker than expected. Make no mistake, underlying demand exists, it’s just a question of when it emerges in force.

So far, even weak demand has pushed prices higher, again, due to historically low supply.

(Read more: Real estate’s new frontier: Crowdfunding)

“Construction of single-family homes has been depressed since late 2007, while the U.S. population has increased by more than 12 million over that time,” said economist Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight. “Since underlying demand is, by our estimate, running at a rate nearly twice that of housing completions, the shortages are likely to get larger before getting smaller.”

This means that home-price gains, as measured by the Case-Shiller indexes, are likely to remain strong for some time, even if they retreat some from the current pace.”

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Questions?Comments? facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101058777

“I think for the short term the people who have the cash will have the advantage. Over the longer haul, I think it will even out. I think the recovery is uneven,” says Howard.

(Read More: Is Multi-Family HomeConstruction Overheating?)

The first builder to report Monday is Virginia-based NVR, with Ryland, Pulte and D.R. Horton continuing through the week. Analysts say Texas-based D.R. Horton, whose stock has recently outperformed its peers, is the one to watch, a bell weather for the group.

“They are the largest builder in terms of the number of closings, and they are in the most markets, so they will probably be able to tell us not only about orders, but also about other things that are important to folks now, like what are material prices doing, how are you negotiating with suppliers,” notes Megan McGrath, an analyst at MKM Partners.

Most of the big builders have seen dramatic growth in new orders, as first time home buyers slowly come back to the market. These buyers are facing stiff competition from all-cash investors in the existing home market, and are therefore looking to new builds. D.R. Horton is an entry-level builder, but has been able to shift product to move-up buyers when the demand is there. Move-up buyers have been moving out of the market of late, despite the overall housing recovery and rising values.

“I think the recovery we’re seeing right now is first-time buyer and the very high end of the market. The move-up buyer has not really shown up as of yet, and if you want to see a very strong recovery in housing we need to see the move-up buyer playing a more prominent role than they are today,” says Richard Smith, Chairman and CEO of Realogy Holdings Corp.

Monthly readings on new and existing home sales are also out next week and will offer more insights into the current strengths and weaknesses of the housing recovery in this crucial Spring season.

(Read More: What’s Holding Up City Home Prices? Boomers)

“In a worst-case scenario, confidence could weaken further and housing starts could mark time,” says Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. “But by far and away the most likely outcome is that the construction industry’s growing pains are overcome and homebuilders break ground on many more sites over the next few years.”

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100656470

In their most recent quarterly statements, all of the largest public home builders reported large annual jumps in the average prices of their homes sold. Pulte’s prices jumped 6 percent to $287000, for Lennar it was a seven percent surge to 261,000 and Meritage led the group with a 17 percent annual jump in average sale prices to $323,000.

(Read More: Soaring Housing Stocks in Perspective)

“New home prices are advancing faster than existing home prices because demand has increased and, as Kim did admit, the mortgage filter is allowing only higher income or at least higher net worth people through the application net, and they are purchasing higher valued homes. But that is true of existing purchases as well,” argues David Crowe, chief economist for the NAHB.

Crowe also makes the argument that new home prices are dictated by costs and demand. Both, he says are rising.

(Read More: New Housing Fears:Home Prices Are Rising Too Fast)

“Lumber and other building material prices have risen very rapidly recently. Shortages of lots and labor supply are beginning to show up, and I expect as new household formations begin to recover, that shortage will expand to more markets. The way to get more resources back into the housing market is to raise the price paid, i.e., wages and land prices,” says Crowe.

Builder profits, he notes, among the small private builders (who still control 70 percent of the market), have been negligible for several years.

“They will have to raise prices to compensate for their efforts, risks and, at least for a short time, being the only ones left,” adds Crowe

(Read More: Is the Refi ‘Apocalypse’ Really Upon Us?)

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