First Republic Bank’s Prestige Home Index indicates luxury homes in San Francisco had a strong finish to 2013. But some suggest that California’s high-end housing market is starting to see a slowdown.

Mark Calvey
Senior Reporter- San Francisco Business Times

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The Bay Area’s luxury home market is signaling a slowdown ahead even as prices late last year were still showing year-over-year double-digit increases.

First Republic Bank’s Home Prestige Index released Monday found that luxury home prices in the Bay Area and other key California markets are near records amid tight supplies of homes selling for $1 million and often more.

But it’s the commentary from real estate agents that set off alarms for careful followers of the luxury housing market. The commentary follows recent economic reports pointing to a national housing slowdown, which some blame on the extremely cold weather. The National Association of Realtors said last week that January existing home sales fell more than 5 percent nationally, the worst showing in 18 months. But if bad weather is to blame, some ask why were sales down 7.3 percent in the warm and sunny West?

In discussing First Republic’s latest quarterly figures released Monday, real estate agents in California’s luxury housing market are using telltale language of trouble ahead, with such phrases as “supply is plentiful” and the “market is solid,” while others see “buyer resistance” and “expect the market to level off.”

That type of talk could put a further chill on the housing market and prompt more home owners to put their properties on the market before prices fall.

Real estate agents say that pricing and demand for the limited supply of homes on the market is approaching levels last seen just before the housing market began to crater in 2007.

Earlier this month, Christopher Stafford and Terry Wright, both of Paragon Real Estate Group in San Francisco, sent an email to clients alerting them to “shifts in the San Francisco real estate market.”

“It is far too early in the year to reach definitive conclusions regarding substantive changes in the market, but there are indications of a number of shifts,” the Paragon agents said. “From the hurly burly on the street, the word is that the quantity of offers coming in on new listings is declining. Where a new listing might have attracted 10 or 12 offers last spring, three or four are coming in now; where three or four offers would have arrived, the seller is getting one.”

For those who don’t fully appreciate what the decline in offers mean, the Paragon brokers put it bluntly, “The amount of competition deeply affects home-price increases.”

“And, according to Broker Metrics, for every two listings that accepted offers in December and January, another listing expired or was withdrawn without selling.”

The Paragon agents see plenty of potential buyers checking out online listings and open houses, but more of them are first-time buyers who are “proceeding more cautiously.” Plus that group doesn’t come in with the buying power of home equity built up over the years.

“Though the market remains hot by any reasonable standard, by some statistical measure it is cooling,” the Paragon agents advised clients. “This may reflect a transition or only a lull before the spring sales season begins.”

On Monday Stafford echoed a frequently heard lament in Bay Area real estate circles, “There is no inventory.”

“It seems some of the heat has been taken off the market,” Stafford told me, adding that he views any references to the market “cooling” as overstating the case.

Those hoping that the Bay Area’s luxury housing market gets a big lift this spring might be disappointed as the affluent experience what Marcum’s accountants call “tax shock” as their higher 2013 tax bills must be paid. This segment of the market is also greatly affected by stock market performance, given how much wealth is created in the Bay Area through stock options and initial public offerings. The IPO market also helps set prices paid by acquirers of private companies. The tie between stocks and luxury housing is so strong that one real estate agent, when asked for his outlook on the region’s luxury home market, said, “You’re asking me to predict what the stock market will do.”

The traditionally strong spring housing market may see even more inventory come to market if home owners decide that they’ll get better prices by selling sooner than later.

On Monday, First Republic’s closely watched survey of luxury home values clocked in strong gains from a year ago, but more modest gains from the third quarter, especially when looking at the third quarter’s gain over the second quarter of 2013.

In the Bay Area, luxury home values in last year’s fourth quarter rose 12.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2012 and 1.8 percent from the third quarter of 2013. That was just below the third quarter’s gain of 1.9 percent from the second quarter of 2013.

In Los Angeles, the fourth quarter’s luxury home values rose 13.7 percent from from a year ago and 1.3 percent from the third quarter. The quarter-over-quarter gain was down sharply from a 6.7 percent gain seen in the third quarter from the second quarter.

In San Diego, luxury home values rose 16.6 percent year-over-year and 1.3 percent from the third quarter of 2013. Again, that represented dramatic slowdown in price gains from the third quarter’s 6 percent increase from the second quarter.

San Francisco-based First Republic Bank produces the quarterly Prestige Home Index with Core-Logic Case-Shiller, a provider of automated property valuation services to the financial services industry. First Republic has tracked luxury homes since the bank’s founding in 1985.

The fourth quarter figures and analysis may provide a snapshot of rising luxury home values as the market was turning down.

“Luxury home prices again posted double-digit gains on a year-over-year basis,” said Katherine August-deWilde, president and chief operating officer of First Republic Bank. (NYSE: FRC) “Market conditions in California’s luxury communities continue to be very strong. Limited inventory, robust demand and low interest rates are driving prices higher.”

In Marin County, higher-priced homes saw gains.

“Going into the end of the year, homes $4 million and above finally picked up,” said Pat Montag of Sotheby’s International Realty in Mill Valley. “Prices are getting close to the peak of the market in 2007. We have very little inventory and that’s constraining the market.”

San Francisco also participated in the strong housing market last year.

“Prices continue to rise because there is so little inventory and so much demand,” said Mary Lou Castellanos of Sotheby’s International in San Francisco. “There are a lot of people who want to buy. The homes that do come to market generate multiple offers and offers over the asking.”

And new tech wealth is spurring luxury home buying on the Peninsula.

“From Palo Alto to Atherton, we are seeing offers 20 percent to 40 percent over the asking price,” said Pat Kalish of Alain Pinel Real Estate in Palo Alto. “It’s tech money as well as foreign buyers. From all indications, prices will keep increasing because the inventory is so low. If you’re a homeowner, this is one of the best times ever to sell.”

Hope springs eternal among those selling real estate.

Southern California also enjoyed a strong market as the stock market clocked in with one of its best years ever in 2013.

“The demand is incredible. It is much stronger than it was in 2006 at the height of the market. Homes that were selling at $10 million in 2005 and 2006 are now $20 million and $25 million. It’s astounding,” said David Mossler of Tele Properties in Beverly Hills.

Further south in Orange County Ron Miller of HOM Sotheby’s in Newport Beach told First Republic Bank that homes at $4 million are selling above year-earlier comps.

“The attractive properties are generating multiple offers,” Miller said. “I see some buyer resistance now and expect the market to level off.”

Even further south in the San Diego area, more signs of a cooling market are evident.

“We’re seeing multiple offers and offers over the asking for properly priced homes up to $3 million,” said Linda Sansone of Willis Allen in Rancho Santa Fe. “From $3 million to $5 million, the market is solid, prices are appreciating and supply is tight. For homes $5 million and above, there is plenty of supply, and prices are rising modestly.”

Sue De Legge of Sue De Legge Associates, also in Rancho Santa Fe, said home-price appreciation was driving the market.

“Rising prices are motivating more sellers to list their homes,” she said. “We expect more inventory to be brought to market in coming months.”

And as a reminder for those who missed Econ 101, rising supply is likely to put downward pressure on prices. One thing is certain: this spring’s home-selling season will be well worth watching.

Mark Calvey covers banking and finance for the San Francisco Business Times.

Article source: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2014/02/home-prices-san-francisco-real-estate.html?page=all

“Drum-tight inventory, lower (interest) rates than most people alive have ever seen, and in some areas record levels of investor purchases (created) an unusual environment,” said Andrew LePage, analyst at San Diego’s DataQuick, which produced the report.

Another big factor – “unleashing of pent-up (buyer) demand,” he said. During the downturn, “for years, some people sat on the sidelines, afraid to buy. Now there’s been a shift in psychology in the past year with people switching from fearing prices might fall more, to fearing they will go up, so they want to buy now.”

An improving economy and job growth – factors that are stronger here than elsewhere in the country – also feed buyer demand.

“The San Francisco Bay Area is the hottest market in the country right now,” said Errol Samuelson, president of Realtor.com, the online marketplace for the National Association of Realtors.

February’s sales median for the nine-county region was $405,000, compared with $325,000 in February 2012. It was the fourth straight month in which prices rose more than 20 percent compared with the prior year, and the ninth consecutive month of double-digit increases, DataQuick said.

The same dearth of inventory that amped up prices caused the volume of sales to slump 6.1 percent compared with a year earlier. A total of 5,404 new and resale homes and condos changed hands in the region in February, DataQuick said.

Return of bidding wars

Realtors around the area report that tight inventories are spurring ferocious bidding wars over properties – a phenomenon that holds true at all price points.

In Berkeley, John and Judith Ratcliffe of the Grubb Co. sold three homes in recent weeks that listed for more than $1 million and went for substantial amounts above asking. One architecturally distinctive home was listed at $1.295 million but sold for $1.8 million, all cash – more than half a million dollars, or 39 percent, above the asking price.

“Everything in our market is getting multiple offers,” Judith Ratcliffe said. “We need more inventory.”

At a different point on the scale, Annie Brown, an agent with ZipRealty in the East Bay, recently took an investor client to tour a $399,000 four-bedroom tract home in Dublin.

“We drove up and saw all these people in a line,” she said. “I was thinking, ‘What the hey?’ and then I realized it was to get in this particular house. It’s human nature; if people think they can’t get something, they want it more. We stood in line for over an hour to get in.”

Her client offered $92,000 over asking and lost out to another investor who bid $100,000 more than the list price, she said. There were 40 offers.

“It’s an investor’s market right now,” Brown said. “Our first-time home buyers … are having a really hard time getting an offer accepted. It’s hard for them to compete with investors.”

Absentee buyers

Indeed, investors continued to be powerful forces in the market. Absentee buyers accounted for an all-time high of 28.2 percent of February sales, DataQuick said. All-cash buyers also hit a record, representing 31.9 percent of February sales. Historically, cash transactions have been about 12.9 percent of sales.

Realtor.com data show that listings here are being snapped up much more quickly than elsewhere in the nation. In Alameda County, for instance, listings go into escrow on average within 14 days of hitting the market. Nationwide, it takes 98 days for houses to sell.

Around the Bay Area, inventories of for-sale homes are about half what they were a year ago, Realtor.com shows. By contrast, nationwide, inventories are down about 16 percent compared with last year, Samuelson said.

That’s true in many micro-markets as well. Take San Francisco’s Nob Hill, for instance. A year ago, it had 30 homes for sale. Now it has just 15, according to Redfin.

Kiesha Stephens, a listing specialist with Redfin, is preparing a two-bedroom Nob Hill condo – a remodeled unit that retains its early 1900s character, including stained glass windows, wood wainscoting and two fireplaces – to hit the market next week for $799,000, a relative bargain in that neighborhood.

She’s already had six agents ask if they could make pre-emptive offers.

“There’s so little inventory that things are definitely skewed in sellers’ favor,” she said. “Right now there seems to be a surge of buyers.”

Fewer distress sales

DataQuick said that changes in the market mix, such as fewer bargain-priced distress sales and more high-end homes, account for about half of the median’s increase. In other words, all Bay Area home values did not jump 25 percent in February, although values definitely are rising across the board. Distress sales – foreclosures and short sales, both often sold at a discount – are still above their historic norms but are declining.

About a third of February’s existing-home sales were distressed; a year ago more than half (53.4 percent) were foreclosures or short sales, DataQuick said. Just 13.6 percent of resales were foreclosures in February, the lowest level since November 2007.

At their peak in February 2009, foreclosures accounted for 52 percent of all resales. Short sales also declined, but not as much. They were 21.4 percent of resales, versus 27.0 percent a year ago.

The number of homes selling for more than $500,000 rose 27.7 percent compared with last year, while those less than $500,000 fell 14.4 percent, DataQuick said.

Prices, which went into free fall during the downturn, are still far off their peaks. The Bay Area median reached a high of $665,000 in summer 2007 and a low of $290,000 in March 2009. DataQuick said that if the current rate of increase holds up, the Bay Area prices will be halfway back to their peak this spring or summer.

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-home-prices-up-24-6-over-2012-4356658.php