It is likely no coincidence that standards are easing as rates rise and mortgage applications fall. Total mortgage applications were down 47 percent last week from a year ago. Refinances, which had been the banks bread and butter during the housing crash, are down 59 percent from a year ago. Applications to purchase a home are up just 5 percent.

“People see interest rates rise, they slow down some of that eagerness to get into the market,” said David Stevens, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

(Read more: Map: Tracking the US real estate recovery)

Credit standards tightened dramatically over the past several years, as loose credit was largely blamed for the crash in housing. Average borrower credit scores on new loans are dramatically higher today, and lenders require larger down payments.

Even the FHA, the government mortgage insurer, which was created to help lower creditworthy borrowers, has raised its standards as well as its insurance premiums. Many lenders have overlays to their guidelines that they add on top of standard conventional guidelines. They could do that because refinances were so high, they needed to slow the volume in order to process all the loans.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100939328

“I think the higher stock market and low rates is a function of the Fed [Federal Reserve] just pumping liquidity into the system,” said Paul Miller of FBR. “What you see, I believe, is some of that liquidity is leaking into the stock market, which is resulting in higher valuations for stocks. But the bond market is still flush with liquidity, and that is keeping mortgage rates low.”

Should the Fed start winding down its asset purchases later this year, mortgage rates will rise. That would make home buying more expensive in an already rising price environment. But is that enough to stop housing’s momentum? Perhaps not.

(Read More: What’s Really Behind Home Price Gains)

“For mortgage payments to return to their long-term average of 22 percent of disposable income, 30-year fixed rates would have to rise all the way to 9 percent,” noted Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. “Accordingly, we’re optimistic that the nascent improvement in mortgage applications will be sustained.”

In any case, it hasn’t been the rates holding borrowers back, but the availability of mortgage credit. That may be easing as well.

Nearly 10 percent of senior loan officers surveyed by the Federal Reserve in April reported easing their lending standards for low-risk mortgages. That’s an increase from the previous quarter. Banks were not, however, more willing to lend to borrowers with lower credit scores. This as 44 percent of loan officers surveyed reported demand for “prime” mortgages was moderately stronger.

(Read More: Old Ills Still Hit Big Banks)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100720364

Now, facing a $16 billion shortfall, the FHA has raised premiums and will raise them yet again next month. FHA loans are becoming increasingly expensive.

(Read More: Housing Jobs Jump, Where Are the Workers?)

Meanwhile, as the housing market improves, private mortgage insurers are starting to remove overlays on higher loan-to-value loans, meaning the percentage of the home value that is mortgaged. Low LTV’s and high credit scores were the rule recently for the private insurers, but that may now be loosening, making these loans cheaper than FHA.

“FHA is certainly becoming more expensive,” noted Craig Strent, CEO of Apex Home Loans in Bethesda, Maryland. “The increase in low down payments is reflective of first time buyers coming off the sidelines and entering the market. We’re going to see more of this trend in the next couple of years as the economy improves and renters start to once again see the benefit of buying over renting. FHA has become more expensive and the mortgage insurance companies are the beneficiary of that, which is really not a bad thing as it means the private market is insuring the lower down payments rather than the government.”

(Read More: Home Buyers Are Back, but Where Are the Houses?)

The stocks of mortgage insurers like MGIC and Radian spiked in the first months of this year, as home prices improved and FHA policy changes designed to shrink its share of the market were announced. There is currently a bipartisan effort in the U.S. Senate to reduce the FHA’s role, and in the House of Representatives a hearing is being held Wednesday looking at, “the competitive advantages the Federal Housing Administration has relative to private mortgage insurers and how those advantages contribute to the crowding out of private capital in housing finance,” according to the House Financial Services Committee release.

Despite the advantages, FHA’s share is already shrinking, as Fannie Mae’s is rising. In the first quarter of 2012, loans with between 3 and 10 percent down payment made up 15 percent of Fannie Mae’s business for home purchase loans (not refinances). In the second quarter it rose to 17 percent and in the third to 18 percent. Fannie Mae has not reported its fourth quarter yet, but that share is expected to rise again. While a credit thaw is part of it, as mortgage interest rates rise and fewer borrowers apply to refinance, lenders are simply looking for more business.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100548913

(Read More: Housing Recovery Is Leaving Behind First-Time Buyers)

But even outside those hot markets, this national housing recovery is dependent on investors, who are largely all-cash buyers. The mortgage market is still too restrictive to support the kind of bulk-buying that needs to occur, and many potential buyers either lack the credit scores or the confidence to jump in. Another 14 million borrowers still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, according to Zillow, and are therefore unable to move.

(Read More: Foreclosure Discounts Drying Up)

Five million properties are either in the foreclosure process or their owners are delinquent on their mortgages. That means foreclosures will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, and investors will be necessary to absorb them. Another concern is that home prices are rising faster than income, which could push potential owner-occupants away just as they were starting to dip their toes in again.

(Read More: Yes, Housing Starts Surge, but Rentals Are the Drivers)

The risk of sales dropping as investors leave is obviously higher in the markets that saw the biggest drop in home prices during the crash, again, like Phoenix. Other markets, such as Chicago, Atlanta, and even parts of Florida, where prices are still weak and distress is still a large share of the market, are still seeing improved sales, as investors shift their sights and cash to more yield-worthy ground.

Sector Watch – U.S. Home Builders

• Toll Brothers
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• DR Horton
  [DHI 
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• Hovnanian Enterprises
  [HOV 
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• PulteGroup
  [PHM 
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• Ryland Group
  [RYL 
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• Lennar Corp
  [LEN 
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• Beazer Homes USA
  [BZH 
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• Meritage Homes
  [MTH 
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• KB Home
  [KBH 
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Questions?  Comments?