“We are experiencing the same as others who have reported, decent spring followed by a poor summer,” said Stephen Paul of Mid-Atlantic Builders. “Through June, sales were up 16 percent then dropped off the table in July and August.”

Home builder confidence stalled nationally in September, after rising steadily, especially at the beginning of 2013.

“While builder confidence is holding at the highest level in nearly eight years, many are reporting some hesitancy on the part of buyers due to the sharp increase in interest rates,” said Rick Judson, the National Association of Home Builders’ chairman.

If interest rates retreat to where they were at the beginning of the year, mortgage refinances will likely rebound again, especially since they have dropped so dramatically in the past six months.

As for home sales, that is not an easy call. Sales have been hampered not just by rising mortgage rates, but by very low inventory, anemic construction, and still-pervasive negative equity among potential move-up buyers. Lackluster job and wage growth, especially among younger Americans, has not helped either.

(Read more: Tepper: Fed wants growth first, second, and third)

We also know that while the Federal Reserve may not be tapering now, it will have to eventually. Some say it should do so sooner rather than later.

“Rip this Band-Aid off already,” said Peter Boockvar of the Lindsey Group. “There will never be the right time to cut back, and today was the perfect opportunity to do so because the market was ready for it. Playing games now over this with the market will not smooth the eventual ease.”

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101043610

“Mortgage rates have increased more than 100 basis points since early May, and we anticipate that trend to continue, albeit gradually, during the next year,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said in a report Tuesday. He also expects economic growth to slow from the, “surprising” pace seen last quarter.

Regionally, home builder confidence increased the most in the Midwest and West and more moderately in the Northeast and South. Housing starts and building permit numbers for August will be released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

(Read more: Map: Tracking the recovery)

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick. Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick.

Questions?Comments? facebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC.

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101040159

(Read More: Homeowners With No Mortgage Offer Clues to Recovery)

“House price improvement has been the biggest reason we’ve seen more confidence improving in general, and prices are taking a stronger hold out West,” said David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, who notes that monthly regional moves can be more dramatic. A three-month running average, however, still puts the West ahead of the rest of the nation.

Builders out West have also been heartened by a huge drop in distressed properties, thanks to an influx of large-scale investors looking to reap the rewards of a growing single-family rental market. As supplies of homes for sale drop there precipitously, the builders are moving in again.

(Read More: Banks Pay Big for Robo-Signing…Again.)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100384154

Last week the CEO’s of 18 home building companies, who collectively build 30 percent of the nation’s new homes, sent a letter to President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner urging them to avoid the fiscal cliff, even if it means raising taxes on the builders:

“We support a comprehensive agreement in Washington to avoid the fiscal cliff that includes revenue increases (including tax rate adjustments) together with meaningful entitlement reforms. We believe that a properly balanced agreement will breed confidence in the political system and the U.S. economy, will enable the housing market to continue its recovery, and, in turn, will promote broader economic growth.”

The letter was signed by the CEOs of publicly traded builders including Beazer Homes, Hovananian Enterprises, KBHome, Lennar, MDC, and Meritage.

(Read More: Best US Housing Markets for Buyers and Sellers)

Article source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100324311

After a slew of positive readings on the nation’s housing recovery, sales of newly built homes in October were a big disappointment.

Despite the big public builders reporting big jumps in new orders and builder confidence positively leaping to the highest level since 2006, sales just didn’t compute, and even September’s numbers were revised down.

“The recovery in new home sales is looking a little weaker than we were previously led to believe,” writes Paul Diggle of Capital Economics.

But Diggle points out the positives, specifically that the time between a completion and a new home sale has been falling dramatically, from over 14 months in late 2009 to just over 6 months today. The average historically is five months.

“That drop strikes us as another sign that buyer confidence is improving,” adds Diggle.

But is it improving as much as builder confidence?

“This was a disappointing update,” writes Patrick Newport of HIS Global Insight.

“It indicates that demand for single-family homes is only slowly picking up, not accelerating, as the data previously showed. It also indicated that builders may have jumped the gun a little by accelerating the pace of construction of single-family homes.

(Read More: Cities With the Most Affordable Homes)

A big concern for home builders now is the looming fiscal cliff. The housing recovery depends on the economic recovery and continued improvement in the jobs picture. There is also great concern that the mortgage interest deduction could fall victim to the cliff. That’s why housing lobbyists have upped their budgets this year to $30 million from $27 million in 2011, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The National Association of Realtors leads by far with a record $25,982,290 spent on lobbying so far.

(Read More: Why the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Is Kryptonite to Entrepreneurs)

Fears of the fiscal cliff could be impacting potential buyers already. The new home sales monthly number from the U.S. Department of Commerce is based on signed contracts, not closings, so it is a clear gauge of what potential buyers are feeling right now.

(Read More: How ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Could Affect Mortgage Interest Deduction)

“It is making me nervous for sure to have such uncertainty over such a traditional expectation, the mortgage deduction,” says Stephen Paul, of Mid-Atlantic Builders, a Maryland-based company. Paul says he hasn’t seen any cancellations over it yet, but it has come up in conversation plenty.

It is just one more uncertainty that this recovery doesn’t need. All signs are pointing to big gains in the housing market for 2013. Those expectations, however, must be tempered with a dash of perspective yet again. Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak maps it out well:

“While the housing industry is recovering, new home sales have trended between 360k and 370k for the last 6 months, still 73 percent below the bubblicious peak in July ’05 and not too far above the trough seen in 1982 and still below the bottom seen in the 1991 recession. On one hand, there is plenty of room for continued improvement but on the other, the healing process will take a lot of time and will likely be in fits and starts as recoveries from the aftermath of bubbles typically are.”

SECTOR WATCH: US Home Builders

—Toll Brothers
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—DR Horton
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—Hovnanian Enterprises
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—PulteGroup
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—Ryland Group
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—Lennar Corp
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—Beazer Homes USA
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—Meritage Homes
[MTH 
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—KB Home
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Questions?  Comments?