Throughout the nine-county region, about 18 percent of all homes with a mortgage – or 205,819 homes – were underwater as of June 30, according to real estate service Zillow.com. That’s a big comeback from just 15 months earlier, when negative equity peaked both locally and nationally.

In late March 2012, almost a third of Bay Area homeowners with mortgages – 31.2 percent, or 355,879 homes – had loans larger than their house’s value.

About one-third of homes are owned outright with no mortgage; they are excluded from the percentage rates.

“The Bay Area is getting out of negative equity at a much faster pace than anywhere else in the country,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “It was a huge percentage point decrease there. Nationally the decrease is much smaller.”

Nationwide, the negative equity rate is 23.8 percent of mortgaged homes, Zillow said.

Home prices surge

Most of the gains are because of a surge in home prices as local real estate markets have grown heated. A smaller share stems from underwater homes changing hands, either as foreclosures or short sales, thus wiping out their negative equity.

The report comes as Richmond – among the areas most underwater – considers taking the radical step of invoking eminent domain to forcibly seize underwater mortgages and slash their principal to restore some equity to the homeowners. Richmond says the goal is to prevent foreclosures and stabilize neighborhoods.

Being underwater has huge implications for a homeowner, particularly when combined with a financial shock – death, divorce, job loss or mortgage payments resetting higher, for instance.

People who have equity in their homes, the largest asset for most Americans, generally have more consumer confidence.

“Homeowners feeling like they are richer in home values does translates to them feeling a bit ‘spendier’ on the consumer side of their expenditures, which will strengthen broader economic recovery,” Humphries said.

Not surprisingly, negative equity is most prevalent in areas that were ravished by foreclosures. The Solano County communities of Vallejo, Fairfield and Suisan City have underwater rates above 47 percent of mortgaged homes.

The Contra Costa towns of Pittsburg, Richmond, Antioch, Hercules and Oakley have rates well above 40 percent. Some Oakland ZIP codes also have high rates.

Even more relevant, in those areas it’s not just that many homes are underwater, it’s that they are deeply underwater, with significant percentages owing more than twice their home’s value. That means homeowners in those areas are unlikely to reach positive equity for many years.

By contrast, in the affluent areas of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties, not only are far fewer homeowners underwater, most are underwater by smaller percentages. That means they have hope that the rising market will lift them into positive equity within a short time frame.

Underwater homes are among the reasons the real estate market has faced a limited supply of inventory.

“You’re still not seeing folks who bought in 2006 selling now because they’re not above water yet,” said Kevin Kieffer of Keller Williams Realty in Danville.

Fewer short sales

As equity continues to rise, more homes should hit the market.

“Our expectation is that a lot of people recently freed from negative equity will start to sell their homes, which will ease inventory constraints,” Humphries said.

The decrease in underwater homes is also borne out in far fewer short sales – homes sold for less than is owed on the mortgage.

“Short sales have dwindled down to hardly anything now,” Kieffer said. “There are only four active (short sale listings) in central (Alameda) county.

“The banks are not pushing hard for short sales the way they once were. I think they’re waiting to ride out this market for the upside. They don’t want to have to go through the expense of a short sale.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-leads-in-underwater-mortgage-rebounds-4772598.php

Throughout the nine-county region, about 18 percent of all homes with a mortgage – or 205,819 homes – were underwater as of June 30, according to real estate service Zillow.com. That’s a big comeback from just 15 months earlier, when negative equity peaked both locally and nationally.

In late March 2012, almost a third of Bay Area homeowners with mortgages – 31.2 percent, or 355,879 homes – had loans larger than their house’s value.

About one-third of homes are owned outright with no mortgage; they are excluded from the percentage rates.

“The Bay Area is getting out of negative equity at a much faster pace than anywhere else in the country,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “It was a huge percentage point decrease there. Nationally the decrease is much smaller.”

Nationwide, the negative equity rate is 23.8 percent of mortgaged homes, Zillow said.

Home prices surge

Most of the gains are because of a surge in home prices as local real estate markets have grown heated. A smaller share stems from underwater homes changing hands, either as foreclosures or short sales, thus wiping out their negative equity.

The report comes as Richmond – among the areas most underwater – considers taking the radical step of invoking eminent domain to forcibly seize underwater mortgages and slash their principal to restore some equity to the homeowners. Richmond says the goal is to prevent foreclosures and stabilize neighborhoods.

Being underwater has huge implications for a homeowner, particularly when combined with a financial shock – death, divorce, job loss or mortgage payments resetting higher, for instance.

People who have equity in their homes, the largest asset for most Americans, generally have more consumer confidence.

“Homeowners feeling like they are richer in home values does translates to them feeling a bit ‘spendier’ on the consumer side of their expenditures, which will strengthen broader economic recovery,” Humphries said.

Not surprisingly, negative equity is most prevalent in areas that were ravished by foreclosures. The Solano County communities of Vallejo, Fairfield and Suisan City have underwater rates above 47 percent of mortgaged homes.

The Contra Costa towns of Pittsburg, Richmond, Antioch, Hercules and Oakley have rates well above 40 percent. Some Oakland ZIP codes also have high rates.

Even more relevant, in those areas it’s not just that many homes are underwater, it’s that they are deeply underwater, with significant percentages owing more than twice their home’s value. That means homeowners in those areas are unlikely to reach positive equity for many years.

By contrast, in the affluent areas of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties, not only are far fewer homeowners underwater, most are underwater by smaller percentages. That means they have hope that the rising market will lift them into positive equity within a short time frame.

Underwater homes are among the reasons the real estate market has faced a limited supply of inventory.

“You’re still not seeing folks who bought in 2006 selling now because they’re not above water yet,” said Kevin Kieffer of Keller Williams Realty in Danville.

Fewer short sales

As equity continues to rise, more homes should hit the market.

“Our expectation is that a lot of people recently freed from negative equity will start to sell their homes, which will ease inventory constraints,” Humphries said.

The decrease in underwater homes is also borne out in far fewer short sales – homes sold for less than is owed on the mortgage.

“Short sales have dwindled down to hardly anything now,” Kieffer said. “There are only four active (short sale listings) in central (Alameda) county.

“The banks are not pushing hard for short sales the way they once were. I think they’re waiting to ride out this market for the upside. They don’t want to have to go through the expense of a short sale.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-leads-in-underwater-mortgage-rebounds-4772598.php

The $510,000 median for the nine-county Bay Area represents a jump of 30.8 percent from a year ago and a record 17 percent above March’s median price, said DataQuick, a San Diego real estate service that produced the report.

“The Bay Area is getting back to normal fast,” said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst. “We’ve had just the right ingredients for big increases in the median and other price measures. We’ve got drum-tight inventory of homes for sale, an unprecedented level of investors chasing homes, interest rates lower than most of us alive have ever seen, and changes in the types of homes selling and where they’re selling.”

The median represents a midpoint, meaning half of Bay Area homes sold for more than $510,000 and half sold for less. It is influenced both by actual appreciation in home values and by a changing mix of homes sold.

The Bay Area median peaked at $665,000 in summer 2007. During the real estate downturn, bargain-basement foreclosures and short sales helped drag the median down to a low of $375,000 in March 2009. Now, with far fewer distress sales and more high-end homes changing hands, a similar dynamic is buoying it. DataQuick said the median has regained 59 percent of its losses.

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: Csaid@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @csaid

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Bay-Area-median-home-price-hits-510-000-4520145.php

It’s a normal life transition – but one that would have been unavailable to him just a year ago, when his home was underwater. Now, with the Bay Area real estate market on a rapid upward trajectory, Walawitch, 62, should be able to sell his three-bedroom, two-bathroom home at a decent profit.

“This is my dream, it will provide me with the down payment for my retirement home,” he said. “I was quite concerned (during the housing downturn); I didn’t know how long I’d have to stay in the house. I’m very happy the market has turned.”

Sale prices of Bay Area homes surged in 2012 at a pace that accelerated throughout the year, according to DataQuick, a San Diego research firm. In December the nine-county median rose to $442,750, an astounding 32 percent increase compared with the prior year – the highest jump in 25 years of record keeping, DataQuick said Wednesday.

That benchmark is heavily influenced by a changing mixture of homes sold. About half of the increase represents higher values, while the other half stems from fewer bargain-priced distress sales and more high-end homes changing hands.

Foreclosures dropping

Foreclosures and short sales comprised about a third of the resale market in December; a year earlier, they were 52.4 percent of sales. The number of homes sold for more than $500,000 rose 61.2 percent, while the number sold for less than $500,000 fell 12.6 percent compared with a year earlier, DataQuick said.

“This absolutely does not mean the typical house in the Bay Area is up 32 percent compared to last year,” said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage.

Beating previous year

However, 2012′s strong sales do show a market that is finally in recovery after the carnage of the housing collapse. From April on, Bay Area median sales prices consistently outshone those of the prior year; from June through December they outperformed 2011 by double-digit percentages.

“We’ve had a sustained buildup,” LePage said. “There is real price appreciation, particularly in the more-desirable coastal markets with a lot of demand meeting very little inventory.”

A total of 7,832 new and resale homes and condos changed hands in the nine-county Bay Area in December, up 4.5 percent from a year earlier. Realtors throughout the region report that inventories remain super-tight and many homes attract boom-style bidding wars.

December marked “the 20th consecutive month of a decline in inventory,” said Glen Bell of Better Homes and Gardens Mason McDuffie Real Estate, speaking of data for Alameda and Contra Costa counties.

The East Bay now has a two-week supply of homes for sale (meaning the existing inventory would sell out in two weeks at the current sales pace), the lowest he has ever seen, Bell said. Ordinarily it should have a three- or four-month supply.

Investors jumping in

“There is so much (buyer) competition for so few properties out there that people are scrambling to try to get in,” he said. “If a home looks good, is in an area people want to live in and is priced right, you get multiple offers all over the place.”

Even properties that don’t meet those criteria win popularity contests. Bell recently listed “a little, tiny, dinky fixer,” a bank-owned foreclosure in a “not great area of Richmond,” priced at $72,000, and received 32 offers, six of them north of $100,000. Every offer was for all cash, implying they were from investors. It went into contract this week for about two-thirds above the asking price.

All that competition – so many buyers vying over so few houses – is driving up prices. But soon it should also bring more sellers, increasing inventory, which in turn should moderate the pace of price hikes.

Correction is real

Potential sellers “are getting the sense that the market has really corrected and this is a good time to make a move,” said Rick Turley, president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, which covers much of Northern California. “The market improvement has gotten people to a point where they can transact, which they previously couldn’t.”

Will spring, the traditional kickoff for real estate’s strongest selling season, see a surge in sellers?

“We are certainly hopeful that the spring will give us the bump we need in listing inventory,” Turley said.

Looking back at the full year, 2012 saw an annual Bay Area median price of $404,000, still shy of the median a decade earlier. But annual medians – which mute some of the month-to-month spikes – paint a portrait of a market where the prices that shot up during the boom and crashed during the collapse now seem on a steadier path.

Could the rise in prices presage another housing bubble?

“I don’t think it will shoot up and crash down again,” Turley said. “The more-conservative lending will help us to stay healthy longer.”

Carolyn Said is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: csaid@sfchronicle.com

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-home-sales-prices-surging-4200912.php

Even with inventory (listings) down compared with the same period last year, buyer demand drove an increase in the number of homes sold in Q1 in all our regions. If this trend continues, the total number of homes sold this year could reach 20,850 – and exceed the 10-year average in the Bay Area for the first time since 2005.

While the number of homes changing hands is jumping, price levels overall, on average, are down 1%.  The first quarter report from Better Homes and Gardens Mason-McDuffie Real Estate shows San Francisco and Napa’s median price increasing by 4% and 7%, while Alameda’s median dropped by 10% compared to the first quarter of 2011.  Slim pickings are sparking multiple offers with quality homes in favored locations as inventory is down by more than half compared to last year.

As of the final day of the first quarter, 7,703 existing detached homes were listed for sale across the entire Bay Area, down a staggering 54 percent from 16,669 homes on the market on the same date a year ago.

Even with the lack of homes on the market, it looks like buyers are out of the gates.  In my local Marin neighborhood, newly listed homes that had a hard time selling a year or two ago, where they lingered for over 100+ days and were finally pulled, are getting snatched up within 2-3 weeks.  With the traditional buying season just beginning and the Facebook IPO on its way, this sets the stage for an interesting summer.

Courtesy of Better Homes and Gardens Mason-McDuffie Real Estate

Article source: http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2012/05/04/bay-area-home-sales-off-to-best-start-since-2005/

“Sales are subpar, prices mainly flat and I don’t anticipate much change,” said Andrew LePage, an analyst with San Diego’s DataQuick, which produced the report. “Lots of people are stacked up on the sidelines, waiting for a better time to buy or sell when things are more certain.”

The median price for all homes – resale, new and condos – sold across the nine Bay Area counties in November was $363,500, down 4.3 percent from a year ago.

The total number of properties changing hands edged up 3.4 percent to 6,317, compared with last year.

Not much inventory

Low inventory remains an issue as many people are reluctant to sell, said Rick Turley, president of Coldwell Banker’s Bay Area region.

“The home seller who becomes a move-up buyer is almost like a missing generation,” he said. “We have some people out there with an appetite (to buy) who have a down payment and can qualify, but because of the ho-hum market, there isn’t inventory for them.”

Turley said he sees about 4 1/2 months’ worth of inventory for high-end homes and just a few weeks’ worth on the low end.

Cindi Hagley, managing broker at Prudential California Realty in San Ramon, observed similar dynamics.

“We have multiple offers on almost everything we sell for under $400,000,” she said.

But at the other end, “People who could theoretically afford to buy bigger homes are hunkering down a bit,” Hagley said. “People are downsizing” rather than moving up.

High-end sales are also taking a hit from a change in the conforming loan limit, which eliminates most government-backed mortgages between $625,501 and $729,750. Lawmakers restored FHA loans in that bracket, but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages are no longer available.

“We don’t know yet to what extent FHA and the private mortgage market can fill that void,” LePage said.

The tighter financing for high-end homes is reflected in declining sales volume.

Low-price purchases

For instance, in Santa Clara County, November sales of homes over $800,000 were down 18.2 percent from a year earlier, while sales of homes under $300,000 rose 22.3 percent compared with November 2010, LePage said.

Throughout the real estate downturn, sales of higher-end homes have declined dramatically. Mortgages above $417,000 accounted for about 29.7 percent of November’s purchase lending, DataQuick said. Before 2007, such “jumbo” mortgages represented almost 60 percent of local purchase loans.

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales sold for less than is owed on the mortgage – remain a potent force, accounting for almost half of all resales in the Bay Area in November.

Investor activity remains high, with absentee buyers snapping up 22.6 of all homes sold last month compared with a regular monthly average of 13.9 percent since 2000. All-cash buyers represented 27.9 percent of November sales.

Other national reports out this week underscored the market’s continued malaise:

– Real estate service Zillow.com said values nationwide were down 5.1 percent in October compared with a year earlier. In the San Francisco metropolitan area, it said, values fell 6.3 percent and are now 33.8 percent off their peak.

– Foreclosure service RealtyTrac said November foreclosure filings nationwide were down 14 percent compared with a year ago. But the company said that despite that seasonal slowdown, numbers suggest a new surge of foreclosures in coming months.

California foreclosure auctions hit a 10-month high in November and the state had the nation’s second-highest foreclosure rate (after Nevada) with 1 in every 211 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the month. Bucking the national trend, California foreclosure filings rose 11 percent in November compared with 2010.

– Move.com, the nation’s largest online collection of for-sale listings, with data from all of the country’s 900-plus multiple listing services, showed national inventory down 21.3 percent in November compared with a year ago and median list prices up 4.05 percent.

In the counties of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin, Move.com showed median list prices basically flat compared with a year ago and inventory down significantly. Homes in those counties sold much faster than those elsewhere in the country, with an average inventory age of 76 days versus 114 days nationwide.

E-mail Carolyn Said at csaid@sfchronicle.com.

This article appeared on page D – 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/12/15/BU6K1MCHQJ.DTL

Throughout the nine counties, the median paid for an existing single-family house in July was $400,000, down 7.5 percent from the same month last year, according to DataQuick, a San Diego real estate research firm. A total of 5,096 homes changed hands in the month, virtually the same as in July 2010.

“More people became more concerned about the future and took a step back to the housing sidelines as we saw an increasing number of negative reports on the economy and jobs, and people fretted about the outcomes of the debt-ceiling debate in Washington, D.C.,” said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst.

The median is strongly influenced by the mix of homes sold: more low-cost homes changing hands results in a lower median. DataQuick said sales of homes above $500,000 fell 19.2 percent compared with a year earlier, while sales of homes below $500,000 were up 3.5 percent over July 2010.

Many of the low-end transactions relied on low-down payment, government-backed Federal Housing Administration mortgages. They accounted for 22.4 percent of all Bay Area home purchase loans in July.

Distressed home sales remain a significant market force. Bank resales of foreclosed homes accounted for 26.6 percent of Bay Area resales in July. Short sales – in which people sell their home for less than they owe on the mortgage – represented 18.8 percent of resold homes.

As has been true throughout the housing downturn, coastal counties with easy access to job centers performed better than those in outlying regions. The median for San Francisco resales was virtually flat at $715,000 versus $714,500 a year earlier. Median prices for existing homes in Santa Clara, San Mateo and Marin counties were down about 3 percent.

“There is no question that Santa Clara and San Francisco (counties) have stood out as being relatively stable, given the strength of their local job markets and the constrained supplies,” LePage said.

But medians declined more steeply in Napa (down 15 percent), Solano (down 9.9 percent), Sonoma (down 8.6 percent), Contra Costa (down 8.5 percent) and Alameda (down 6.4 percent) counties.

For all homes, including resale homes, resale condos and new homes, sales volume inched up 1.7 percent and the median price fell 7 percent to $374,000 from $402,000.

Two competing factors affect the housing outlook for the rest of the year. On the one hand, consumer concerns about their finances were exacerbated by the wild ride the stock market has taken this month. On the other hand, interest rates are at historic lows and home prices are more affordable than in years past.

Even the best-case scenario doesn’t involve an immediate recovery but rather an extended period of prices bouncing along the bottom.

“I think it’s likely we’re in for a long period of stagnation,” LePage said. “If we get worse news on jobs and the economy and see big dips in the stock market, we could see prices come down some more. Of course (even with stagnation) prices will always bounce around a bit.”

The California Association of Realtors, which on Monday issued its report for July, had a similar take.

“Economic uncertainty and recent developments in financial markets have caused hesitation among buyers, the effects of which we may see in the coming months,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, the group’s chief economist, in a statement. “We must see sustained job and income gains along with an increase in consumer confidence before we can expect to see consistent improvement in the housing market.”

E-mail Carolyn Said at csaid@sfchronicle.com.

This article appeared on page D – 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/08/16/BUD91KO7CA.DTL