SAN FRANCISCO—When Alexandra Goldman got notice of her rent increase—from $6,000 a month on a five-bedroom house she shared with roommates to $11,000—she says she was in disbelief.

“We knew immediately we were not going to be able to pay that much money to live there,” said Ms. Goldman, a 28-year-old planning consultant whose share of the rent was about $1,000 a month. After receiving the notice in October, she said the house’s occupants ended up dispersing to other rentals. She is living with other roommates now and paying about $300 more than she had before. Her former landlord didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Welcome to what is arguably one of the worst cities in America to be a renter, but among the best to be a landlord and apartment investor. San Francisco led the top-50 U.S. metropolitan areas in average rent growth during the second quarter, jumping 7.8% to $2,498, while Oakland was No. 2 at a 6.9% increase, and San Jose was in fifth place at 5%. The 6.8% increase for the combined San Francisco Bay area was more than double the nation’s 3.1% increase, according to preliminary estimates by MPF Research, a market-research firm in Carrollton, Texas.

The Bay Area’s Building Boom

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Jason Henry for The Wall Street Journal

An advertisement for the new 22-story apartment complex at 1190 Mission Street, seen from Market Street in San Francisco

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The rent increases have investors rushing to purchase existing properties. San Francisco-based Ridge Capital Investors, for example, has acquired nearly 500 units throughout the area since 2011, including a 45-unit apartment complex in San Mateo, a city south of San Francisco, for $10.95 million in November. Trevor Wilson, managing director of Ridge Capital, said his company has competed against as many as 30 bidders on multifamily properties in recent months.

“We’ve been trying to find more [properties], but there’s not a lot available,” said Mr. Wilson, who added his firm is spending about $1.5 million to refurbish units at the 34-year-old Mariner’s West Apartments in San Mateo so rents now well below market levels can be raised. Tenants there are now paying as much as $1,000 below the market rate of $2,300 to $2,400 a month for that area, Mr. Wilson said.

Fueling the rental increases in San Francisco and many other cities across the country are a resurgence in two key industries—technology and energy—and a generally improving economy nationwide, said Ryan Severino, senior economist at Reis Inc., a market-research firm in New York. Rents in energy-rich Denver jumped 6.1% from a year ago, according to MPF Research, while Seattle, another tech hub, saw rents increase 6%.

Mr. Severino said rents are rising the fastest in cities with the tightest supply of housing, like the Bay Area and Seattle. San Francisco’s vacancy rate for multifamily housing in the second quarter stood at 3%, the same as a year earlier, compared with a national average of 4.7%, according to MPF.

Some cities with less-robust job markets enjoyed a strengthened market but remained at higher vacancy rates amid deeper housing inventories. Philadelphia’s vacancy rate dropped to 5.4% in the second quarter, from 6.1% a year earlier and compared with a national average of 4.7%. The rate in Las Vegas fell to 7.5% from 8.4%, and in Memphis, Tenn., to 8.9% from 10.1%, according to MPF Research.

For the nation’s tightest apartment markets, some observers worry the local labor pool may eventually go down, because of people being driven away. In Ms. Goldman’s case, she said she and her roommates mostly had the means to remain in San Francisco but said that may not be the case for everyone. “It’s getting a little out of control,” she said.

Regarded by industry analysts as chronically underhoused, San Francisco added 31,000 jobs in 2012 in a city of about 800,000. That is resulting in sticker shock for new arrivals. Leena Rao, with her husband, Suneel Gupta, recently leased a two-bedroom, two-bath home for between $4,000 and $5,000 a month, compared with $2,150 for the two-bedroom they left behind in Chicago.

“It was a brutal surprise,” said Ms. Rao, 31, an editor for a technology news website.

The tight supplies have unleashed a torrent of new construction in the Bay Area, with 14,377 units permitted for construction over the next 18 months, or almost as much as for Houston, typically a much more active building market, according to MPF Research. In San Francisco, the 22-story 1190 Mission at Trinity Place building preleased half its 419 units before opening July 1, with all the tenants signing agreements without the customary practice of having toured a model or attended an apartment tour, said Rob Willis, director of operations for Trinity Management Services, the builder. “We have never seen this,” Mr. Willis said.

Some homeowners are seeking to cash in on the demand. Jane Shepard said she and her husband, Avrum, plan to rent their four-bedroom, two-bath home in San Francisco to help raise money for needed repairs. “Financially, it’s a great time to be a landlord,” said Ms. Shepard, 67, a commercial-property manager. She said the couple would move to their second home in Visalia, Calif.

But renters with less means are finding fewer options. Dawn Griffin, 55, said she was served with an eviction notice in January on her $725-a-month apartment near the city’s Golden Gate Park. Landlord Elba Borgen, who didn’t return calls for comment, also served eviction notices on the other seven tenants in the building, said Ted Gullicksen, executive director of the San Francisco Tenants Union, which has offered advice and other help to Ms. Griffin and other tenants in her building.

“I can’t afford to move,” said Ms. Griffin, a 30-year resident of the apartment and a medical-office administrator.

Still, some tenants have turned the situation into opportunity. Sam Parr said he ended up starting a business matching roommates with apartments after moving to San Francisco from Nashville, Tenn., last year and seeing prices so high he needed to share rent with someone, too. “I thought, oh my God, this is awful—something has to be done,” said Mr. Parr, 24, who sold the business to a larger startup and now shares a $3,500-a-month house with three roommates.

Write to Jim Carlton at jim.carlton@wsj.com

A version of this article appeared July 16, 2013, on page C1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Bay Area Rally Sends Rents Soaring.

Article source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324694904578602013087282582.html

Well what do you know! After writing on TechCrunch for the past year about how Silicon Valley’s Gatsbyesque wealth couldn’t find much real estate to buy, Bay Area inventory is up. Bidding wars are down. And rising rates are squeezing buyers who have to borrow money. Below is Redfin’s quarterly rundown of what’s happening in Silicon Valley real estate.

Bidding wars are less intense. Bidding wars are still common, with Redfin agents facing competition on 95 percent of all homes in May 2013, the highest of any of the 21 markets Redfin serves. For example, Redfin Silicon Valley agent Brad Le reports that this nice-enough $2 million Cupertino listing got 12 offers, and likely went under contract in June for well above $2.4 million. But fewer bidders are competing. Since Redfin publishes competitive dynamics for every offer our agents write, we measure the average number of competitors in a bidding war, which has declined from a peak of 16.3 in January to 7.8 in May. As agents, we know that demand is waning not because buyers no longer want a home but because they’ve despaired of ever being able to get one. About one in four of our Bay Area homebuyers have told us at some point in the last three months that they’re taking a break from their search out of sheer frustration.

Also-rans are left behind. The decrease in competition hasn’t changed the pricing of the most sought-after properties. But occasionally, close also-rans languish. Redfin Silicon Valley agent Mia Simon noticed that two nearly identical Mountain View homes, one slightly better looking, sold at the same time last week: The beauty queen sold for $200,000 over asking, drawing all the attention away from its neighbor, which got only one offer and sold for $150,000 less than comparable properties in the area.

Flash sales. The fact that homes are still selling very quickly may reflect a fundamental change in consumer behavior rather than simply a hot market; the median days on market for Bay Area homes that sold in May was 12 days; last year at this time it was 18. Mobile instant alerts triggered by the debut of new listings have been behind this trend, with 302 listings in May going under contract in less than 24 hours. Some of our buyers don’t even like to go into a Costco for too long if it will block the cell signal they need to get instant alerts. This has also put pressure on real estate websites to get inventory quickly. On average, brokerage sites like APR.com, ZephyrSF.com, and Redfin.com get new listings days earlier than national portals; the reason is that the brokerage sites employ real estate agents with complete, direct access to the Bay Area’s four local Multiple Listing Services.

More homes for sale. Higher prices, and perhaps the fear that higher interest rates could dampen demand later, have at last drawn would-be sellers into the market. Bay Area inventory began the year down 59 percent from 2012, but has now improved to the point that it’s only 28 percent down from this time last year; by year-end we expect 2013 inventory to be up year-over-year for the first time since 2011. Redfin’s own Bay Area listing business has increased more than 100 percent over last year. In 2013, real estate’s spring may come in summer, and summer may come in fall. Sales volume will increase, and price increases may lose steam.

More new construction coming in the East Bay and in San Francisco: Builders are often slow to respond to inventory crunches, in part because it takes time to finish projects, in part to drive profits from a run-up in demand. This is why we’ve seen line-ups, lotteries and camp-outs among buyers competing to get units as they’re released by builders. But four new projects are releasing units this summer in San Francisco, where the total number of homes has barely budged since World War II: 300 Ivy in Hayes Valley, One Rincon Hill Phase Two near the Bay Bridge, The Icon in the Mission, and Linea-built projects in the Mission like Nove.

More inside jobs: We hear more reports of pocket listings, where the listing agent sells the home to one of his own clients or to one of his partner’s clients, without offering the property to the broader market. The actual data suggests that this is common only for homes priced above $5 million. Few sellers at lower prices would ever bypass the larger market, which can draw in enough buyers to spark a bidding war. But there are other types of inside jobs. “Some Redfin clients are trying to get creative,” reports Landon Nash, Redfin San Francisco agent. “I just closed one deal with a client who asked his landlord to sell, and I have another two — which may or may not close — in the works.”

Interest-rate anxiety: With interest rates increasing since May 1, and sharply since May 22, Bay Area homebuyers have felt more pressure to buy a home soon. On June 4, interest rates exceeded 4 percent for the first time in a year. “You know how analytical we can be in the Bay Area,” said Redfin agent Brad Le. “Some of my clients know down to the dollar how much more their mortgage is per month with the current rates, and others already stretching to afford a home have been priced out by the rate increase. The buyers who remain are even more motivated to find something.”

Buyers are withdrawing money from retirement accounts to compete with more cash in bidding wars. In the past week, three different Bay Area buyers did this, despite the penalties associated with withdrawals from 401(k) accounts. Bay Area sellers continue to have a strong preference for cash buyers, to avoid a second price negotiation if an appraisal comes in low from the buyer’s lender. Buyers are also getting help from their parents. Just last month, Redfin clients living in a one-bedroom San Francisco apartment with two small children needed extra dough to avoid being priced out of the Oakland Hills market, so the parents — who were already tired of staying in hotels during visits from the East Coast — just became a party to the purchase. Virtually every Redfin agent in the Bay Area has a story about this.

Surprisingly, fewer for-sale-by-owner listings: Of the Bay Area sales closed in May, 89 percent had been listed by an agent. By comparison, 85 percent of May 2012 sales were agent-listed. Usually, when the market makes it easier to sell a home, more sellers try to do it themselves. But the Bay Area is in such a frenzy that people here are hiring an agent in even greater numbers to play the game to perfection, and to get top dollar. Of course, as real estate agents ourselves, Redfin benefits from a decline in for-sale-by-owner sales. Nonetheless, Redfin’s website is the only one I know of that shows both all the agent-listed homes for sale as well as for-sale-by-owner listings.

A decline in commissions offered to buyers’ agents, from 2.65 percent for Bay Area listings that debuted in May 2012, to 2.56 percent in May 2013. Sellers have been emboldened by the market to offer the buyer’s agent less, with no fear of steering.

A still-exclusive club: Booms usually bring an increase in the number of agents. Not in the Bay Area. In May 2012, 6,008 Bay Area agents represented homebuyers on 9,456 transactions. By May 2013, 5,540 Bay Area agents represented buyers on 8,295 transactions. Because the market here has been inventory-gated, 2013 sales actually declined 12.3 percent, whereas the number of active agents declined 7.8 percent.

What does it all mean? The Bay Area real estate market is getting back to its own version of normal, which still isn’t that normal at all.

• REDFIN

Redfin is an online real estate company that provides real estate search and brokerage services. Redfin uses an interesting combination of online real estate search and access to live agents. They employ their agents so they can better control customer satisfaction; traditional brokerage firms license their name to independent agents. Redfin claims to save homebuyers on average $7,500 by reimbursing roughly 1/2 of the buy-side real estate fee directly on closing. Redfin also pays bonuses to agents when they…

? Learn more

Article source: http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/15/silicon-valley-real-estate-update-the-craziest-market-in-the-u-s-just-got-a-little-less-crazy/

Taking those flaws into consideration, Realtor Bernard Katzmann listed it for $1.1 million at the inauspicious sales time of Thanksgiving. Then he watched in amazement as 22 offers came in – many for all cash – and it ended up selling for $1.54 million.

“Lots of tech companies were represented” among the bidders, he said. “I heard that many buyers want to get in now before Facebook goes public (and spawns scores of new millionaires), which is pushing demand.”

In a still-moribund real estate market, Noe Valley stands out as a neighborhood buoyed by positive fiscal forces.

All the money flowing into tech firms, and all the tech jobs being created in Silicon Valley and San Francisco, have been a boon for Noe Valley because of its fortuitous location for Peninsula, South Bay and downtown commutes, along with its walkable, small-town feel, family-friendly vibe (it’s called “stroller valley”), and charming, albeit pricey, Victorians.

“It’s like a little village within the city,” said Sally Smith, co-publisher and editor of the Noe Valley Voice, the monthly neighborhood newspaper. “It has that community feeling that everybody wants.”

“Noe Valley is a favorite neighborhood for techies because it’s so close to 101 and 280,” said Tim Gullicksen, an agent with Zephyr Real Estate. “It’s a pain to live on the north side of San Francisco because they have to get all the way through town to get to the freeways.”

Tech firms’ buses a plus

The private bus routes sponsored by tech firms are a draw, said Zephyr agent Danielle Lazier. “We see a lot of first-time buyers from tech companies who still want to have a city lifestyle; they don’t want to live in the suburbs, but they work down south. What I notice is when people from Google, Apple, Yahoo and Genentech come in for a first meeting, we literally draw a line in the city because of the commute. Noe Valley is at the top of the list, then Bernal, Mission, Dolores, Cole Valley.”

The numbers tell the story. The median sales price in San Francisco has tumbled to $653,000, down 22 percent from its 2007 peak of $840,000, according to real estate information service Dataquick. That’s a far less dramatic slide than most other California cities. But in ZIP code 94114, which includes Noe Valley and the Castro, the median sales price for single-family homes now stands at $1.332 million, only 5 percent below its 2007 peak of $1.406 million. The median condo price is $820,000, down 8.5 percent from its 2007 peak of $896,000.

“It’s not completely bulletproof, but it’s more stable than other areas,” Lazier said. “Not everything sells over asking price the way it used to.”

Noe isn’t the only San Francisco neighborhood whose cachet has insulated it from the real estate downturn. ZIP codes 94117 (Haight-Ashbury/Cole Valley) and 94123 (Marina/Cow Hollow), for instance, have seen even less pricing impact.

Tight inventory is one factor that keeps Noe Valley prices up. Last year, 163 existing single-family homes, 143 existing condos and 10 new residences changed hands in the ZIP code, Dataquick reported.

Location, location, location

“Noe Valley has several things going for it,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist at real estate site Trulia.com. “Being closer to the Silicon Valley commute than other desirable parts of the city is a big plus. It’s also convenient to downtown. And it’s a neighborhood where there’s not a lot of new construction to relieve price pressure as more people go after pretty much the same number of homes.”

Brendan Collins, owner of Collins Construction, buys “fixer” houses, remodels and expands them, and then sells them. Noe Valley, where the older Victorians and Edwardians are modest in size because they were built for working-class families, is particularly fertile ground because it is such a desirable neighborhood for families, he said.

Article source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/02/19/BUIS1N7MM8.DTL&type=business